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Profiling the Recovery Part I: America

Knowing — or maybe believing is a better word — that property markets and economies around the world are on the way back up sure is a nice feeling. It may be a short-lived feeling, because according to some there are signs that the short-lived positivity will end as quickly as it begun.

I am not one of the people. Nor am I one of the plastic fantastic optimists that think the only way is up, and that rejoices in reports of UK mortgages doubling, and property in some areas selling for almost the same as it would have at the height of the boom.

The truth is, yes, we are making some headway against the deluge of negative financial news. In fact, a good analogy of the current recession recovery process for me, is a snow plough that has been completely submerged in snow: we have just jumped in and managed to get the engine started, the heat is slowly melting the snow, but we still have a hell of a lot of pushing to do before we clear the drifts.

As you would expect, all the countries of the world are recovering in different ways and at a different pace, depending on the makeup of their economy and the funding and direction of its government’s economic stimulation policies. Nobody knows how strong the recoveries are without the massive injection of cash and stimulation being poured into the world’s markets.

In this series of articles we will profile the G8 nations to track the progress of recovery in their housing markets so far, and attempt to map any possible deep-drifts in the road of stimulus withdrawal ahead.

South Florida Real Estate Proving to be a Hit for Foreign Buyers

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South Florida property developer Joe Milton has put up $100 million of his company’s cash to set up a mortgage company to fund loans for foreign buyers, because foreign buyers are often locked out of the market if they don’t have cash. Although sixty percent of Milton’s buyers are foreign, the few loans that are being made to foreign nationals come with terms deemed unacceptable by most. However, more than half of these foreign buyers are paying everything in cash, with European and Canadian buyers most likely to reject the financing option.

Record US Foreclosure Jump In Third Quarter

A California-based seller of default data, RealtyTrac Inc, which collects data from 90% of the US population, has revealed that property foreclosures in the US hit a record high in the third quarter of 2009 as more lenders took action against delinquent borrowers. 343,638 properties received foreclosure filings in September alone, the third-highest monthly total behind July and August of this year.

Banks In South Florida Face New Crisis

office-space-for-lease Commercial real estate is suffering in Florida thanks to the credit crunch. This is putting an increasing strain on Florida banks as a growing number of commercial property owners are forced to default on their loan payments. Driven by declining rental income, empty storefronts and a general lack of available funds to keep their investments afloat in dire times many investors of commercial property are now costing banks millions putting them at risk of failing in return.

Place in the sun burns a hole in the pocket

Forking out for sunshine holiday homes has burned property investors as house price plunged in the recession, according to a damning new report.

The idea of opening up to the masses what was once a luxury exclusively available only to the wealthy has proved to be an expensive mistake for hundreds of thousands of Brits who dreamed of a place in the sun, say property consultants Savills and HolidayRentals.co.uk in their study.

They say the holiday home investment model is ‘broken’ and actually doubt the market existed.

The market took off in 2000, when UK-owned properties abroad were valued at £10bn.

By 2007, estimates put the number of UK-owned overseas holiday properties at 500,000 with a value of about £58 billion with markets in Spain, Florida, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Dubai taking the bulk of the money. For Bulgaria and Dubai, property prices have fallen through the floor by up to 75% and the banks have stopped lending to foreign investors.

With plunging prices, little hope of locals buying homes on holiday developments and lack of rental income, few investors have any hope of recouping their losses by selling at the bottom of the market when most owe more than their properties are worth.

At the start of the boom, 80% of the UK’s second-home owners financed their overseas property from their own wealth.

The research shows that by the market’s peak in 2007, cash buyers had fallen to 20%, with 80% of buyers taking advantage of overseas mortgage markets.

To make matters worse, many holiday home purchases were funded by taking equity out of UK homes, leaving the investors facing debt problems on both sides of the Channel. Under EU laws, creditors in other EU countries can pursue their losses through UK courts.

A lack of regulation in the property sales industry is also blamed.

Buyers speculated with borrowed money, believing that capital rising property prices would allow them to sell at a profit while rental income covered mortgage payments. Unfortunately, the recession has killed off the model as holidaymakers stayed at home rather than spending out on airfares and apartment or villa rental.

The market, according to the report, was fuelled by low cost airfares, too much liquidity in the mortgage market and that investors took little or no heed of professional, independent advice before signing contracts – and in some cases have not even visited the country where they bought property.

“Even where developers guarantee a gross income yield for a period of two or three years, the net yield is often swallowed by high service charges. In many instances, a net income yield of less than 2% is not uncommon,” said the report.

“There is an average price premium of 37% for property that is served by low cost airlines. Medium distance destinations from the UK, such as the Canary Islands and Cyprus, show the strongest link between house prices and the accessibility of low cost airlines. While this has opened up many new opportunities for buyers, it leaves destinations served by single carriers particularly exposed to the withdrawal of that service.”

Unsure as to ‘Where to Invest’ – Follow the Big Players

Property mogul Eyal Fishman has revealed his insights about global property markets that are influencing investment decisions at his private company Mirland.

Fishman’s companies – including London based Mirland – have property interests around the world.

So what are Fishman’s thoughts about the property world that may hold interest for smaller investors?

Strong Currency & High Oil Prices Enable Russians Buy Distressed US Properties (Again)

Rich Russian millionaires are heading back to US shores to take advantage of the favourable prices of distressed sales. With the strong rubble to back up their buying power, many are taking advantage of bargain sales to increase their real estate portfolio.

Top 5 Short Term Property Investments

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Since the credit crunch I have become ever more cautious of recommending property investment with a view to short-term gain. I mean, I was lucky; while they aren’t growing by the percentages I forecast for this year; the destinations I recommended are still set to make the total short-term gains I was forecasting in 2007/08, by 2012/13. Places like: the Philippines, Brazil, Koh Phangan (Thailand), Tunisia, and more mostly in Latin America.

US Real Estate Prices Back to 2003 Levels As Property Vultures Swoop Bargains

foreclosure-home Property vultures are circling to pick the bones clean of deals as the US property clock has wound prices back to the same levels as they were in 2003, according to financial researchers Standard and Poor’s.

House prices fell 18% in April in S&P’s 10 and 20 city indices.

Commercial property has crashed alongside home prices registering a  20% decline, with market expectations of another good way to go – perhaps another 20%.

More Bad News from Luxury Real Estate in Manhattan

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The once thriving real estate market in New York’s prestigious Manhattan district has experienced a heavy blow in the last three months. Sales have gone down by 50% and prices have continued to sink, leaving owners little hope to sell their apartments for a nice profit.

Jonathan Miller, CEO of real estate appraiser Miller Samuel, stated: “Sales were off by 50% because of the weak economy, rising unemployment and, most important, the credit crunch.”