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What’s Happening In Berlin’s Property Market


Berlin Mitte Skyline (credits: Dennis Gerbeckx)

Reports about Berlin’s flourishing property market are not shy in the last few months. It seems that the capital of Germany has finally morphed out of its sleeping beauty shell and climbed into the international limelight when the rest of Europe licks their wounds.

We hear of shiny, modern new property developments in the middle (Die Mitte) of Berlin with prices as high as 10,000 euros per square metre which is apparently more than double than only a few years ago.

Property Grand Prix Germany

Hockenheim’s race on Sunday was another win for Brit Lewis Hamilton, tallying his overall points to 58 which puts him into the Championship lead, ahead of Brazilian Felipe Massa. Having started in pole position, Hamilton was leading the field until he was called into the pits for a late stop, due to German Timo Glock’s accident. Glock crashed into a wall when his rear tire suddenly deflated at lap 36. Luckily he didn’t carry any serious injuries and was later released from hospital. The accident brought out the safety car, which kept Hamilton on the track while the rest of the field did their final pit stops.

When he was finally forced for his pit stop Hamilton lost the lead to Finn Kovalainen, Brazilian Massa and rookie driver Nelson Piquet Jr., also from Brazil. But Hamilton couldn’t be stopped and with eight laps to go he snuck his way back into the lead and eventually into race victory.

His win gave McLaren their first win in Hockenheim since 1998 while rookie driver Piquet celebrated his first ever podium.

Biggest rival Ferrari didn’t have a particular great day but still managed to come away with third and sixth place.

  1. Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes)
  2. Nelsinho Piquet (Renault)
  3. Felipe Massa (Ferrari)

The race result must have been quite emotional for Piquet Jr., as it was the first time since 1991 two Brazilians shared the podium. Back then it was his father Nelson Piquet Sr. who was joined by legend Ayrton Senna on the winning podium.

REITs: Germany, A Few Months into An Entirely New Property Investment Regime

In the first of a weekly series this month on REITs we look at their introduction in Germany.

Legislation for German Real Estate Investment Trusts was only passed by the Bundestag on 23rd March this year, though it was with retrospective effect back to 1st January 2007. It seems too soon to draw accurate conclusions about the success of the change although there is an enormous potential upside for German property.

To evaluate developments over the next 12 months or so it’s important to register that both the German property sector in general and the legislation of Angela Merkel’s coalition government to establish REITs have special features that make the situation different from, for instance, the UK, one of the other newcomers on the block.

Taking the general distinguishing characteristics of the German property first of all, the most obvious of these is the size of the real estate sector. Estimates vary in the range of roughly 6.5 to 7.2 trillion Euros, making Germany by some way the European Union’s largest property market. However, up until now the term ‘market’ may have been slightly misleading as Germany has not only had a large proportion of rented housing (57% of the total) but (more significantly for investors) a very high level (73%) of commercial property owned by the companies utilising or occupying premises. The equivalent proportion in the United States is 25%.

Does the Zeitgeist Translate into Property Prices and Rentals?

Berlin has its fair share of palaces (San Souci and Charlottenburg) and Museums (the Pergamon Museum) and historical associations (the rebuilt Reichstag and Spandau, for instance, where Albert Speer was incarcerated) and it’s now enjoying another renaissance as a lively cultural centre instead of the cold war bastion of freedom. However, to point out that Berlin property is cheaper than that in Paris or Rome might prompt the thought that it doesn’t compare so well in other ways. With its waterways and open spaces, though, it does offer an environment that competes very well with over-priced London and, indeed, some Londoners are beginning to seriously consider Berlin as the first rung of their property ladder. British food favourites can be sourced from a number of places around the city and gym and swimming facilities compare favourably with London’s. As the Insite consultancy says, you can buy an apartment in Berlin for the price of a garage in London or Dublin.

Surge in Global Real Estate Investment

Global real estate investment has never had it this good according to the new Jones Lang LaSalle report “Moving Further and Faster”…

2006 experienced record level volumes of global real estate investment with a 40% increase in investments in 2006 from 2005 amounting to a record $900billion total investment. The lion’s share of global real estate investment continues to be traditionally commercial real estate which accounted for $682billion in 2006, a surge of 38% over 2005, and nearly double 2003 volumes.

Cross border transactions now represent 42% of total investment volumes which has grown by 34% from 2005 levels. Inter-regional investments grew from 23% in 2005 to 29% in 2006.

The breakdown of the $900 billion global real estate investment in 2006 is as follows:

  • Direct commercial real estate investments accounted for $682billion,
  • Investors privatised REITs and other listed real estate owning entities totalled $48bn,
  • and purchased multi-family residential investments totalled $170 billion.

According to the CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle’s International Capital Group, Tony Horrell, “Global real estate markets performed very strongly throughout 2006; it was the first year that all major developed and emerging market returns were both aligned and positive. Investment was driven by increased allocations to the asset class, growth in investible stock and by the increased attention of opportunistic private equity players who identified relative value in the sector. These increased flows into real estate gave rise to two notable phenomena in 2006 – an increasing number of ‘mega-deals’, and continued globalisation of the asset class.” Horrell also pointed out the collective rise of 240% (US£39billion) in Global funds invested in the US, UK & Japan.

  • Global funds dominated the German market in particular, purchasing 40 percent (by value) of all German commercial property traded.
  • US investors expended $18billion in the UK, France & Germany (a 51% increase).
  • UK investors spent $18billion principally in Germany (an increase of a staggering 200%)
  • Middle Eastern investors spent about $13billion principally in the US, UK, Germany & South Africa (a 14% increase)
  • And Australian investors spent $12bn, principally in Germany and the UK

Horrell added: “Germany’s relative attractiveness has increased significantly due to a unique combination of willing domestic sellers, underweight cross-border investors, positive yield spreads and a recovering economy. Japan offers investors exposure to a recovering economy and yield spreads of almost 200bps”.
According to Padraig Brown, Global Strategy and Research Director at Jones Lang LaSalle, “Emerging markets had a strong year with over $40bn of transactions recorded (up 74%). Many of these markets have appeared on investor’s radars only recently and are exhibiting exhilarating rates of growth, with the Russian market expanding by over 700% during 2006 and strong deal flow in China, Turkey, Mexico and Brazil.”

“Real estate fundamentals remain strong, with solid economic growth projected, vacancy rates remaining low in most major markets, and development pipelines remaining modest. Rental growth should help support recent yield compression, however investors should note that the pricing differential between prime and secondary product and markets has been lowered and ensure that risks are sufficiently factored into bid prices.”
Regional Highlights: Europe

  • Europe became the world’s most active real estate investment market in 2006 with $305billion invested in the region in 2006 (a 44 % increase from 2005)
  • There was a distinct shift in the UK’s long term dominance of the European market in 2006 were total transactions amounted to US$101bn (4% below 2005) with investment volumes increasing strongly in both Germany and France.
  • Germany was the major global real estate story of 2006. A combination of willing domestic sellers, aggressive cross-border investors, positive yield spreads and a recovering economy resulted in transactions totalling US$62bn – growth of over 140% in constant currency terms. The German market now accounts for 20% of European volumes (up from 12%).
  • The French investment market grew by 70% to $30bn or 10% of European volumes (up from 8%).

Regional Highlights: North and South America

  • Real estate investments in North and South America were US$283bn in 2006, up 31 %.
  • Cross-border investment represented 25 % of total investment (up from 16 % in 2005) and inter-regional investment reached 22 % of total investment (15 % in 2005).
  • Investment markets in the Americas region are overwhelmingly located in the U.S. (96% of the region’s transactions by value, and 40% of global investment).
  • Other investment markets include Canada and the rapidly growing cross-border markets of Latin America – dominated by Mexico and Brazil.

Regional Highlights:Asia

  • Real estate investments in Asia in 2006 were $94bn, up 41 %.
  • Cross-border investment represented 32 % of total investment (up from 29 % in 2005) and inter-regional investment was 22 % of total investment (18 % in 2005).
  • Japan’s resurgence dominated the Asia Pacific market where transaction volumes surged 128% to US$52bn – 55% of total investment in the region.
  • Yield spreads were guaranteed for investors in Japan due to its interest rates which remain the world’s lowest.

Read the full Jones Lang LaSalle report here. What are your thoughts about commercial real estate investments in 2007? Do you think they’ll surpass 2006 levels? The Jones Lang LaSalle report is quite optimistic about 2007.

We would like you to check out the new International Herald Tribune Real Estate Blog – Raising the Roof. And don’t forget to drop by our own overseas property forum, it’s new and needs your support.

Should you buy in Germany?

One thing that England supporters attending the World Cup will have learned (apart from the confirmation that our penalty takers can’t hit a cow’s bottom with a banjo) is that Germany is an attractive country with a welcoming and hospitable people.

Surprisingly, though, despite its proximity and value for money, it barely features on the wish list of British buyers of holiday homes.

There are a number of reasons for this, but one of the most obvious is that Germany is not a major tourist draw for British holidaymakers or second home owners.

Most of us buy property abroad to let it out to other British holidaymakers or to live in communities of fellow expatriates.

Neither really applies to Germany, but the focus on the country during the World Cup could be about to change all that.

Savvy property investors are talking about Germany being the next big thing on the Continent. But on what grounds?

According to the European Housing Review 2006, it is the only European country where residential property prices dropped last year.

In its recent report, property analyst Merrill Lynch observed that the country ‘has conspicuously failed to join in the global housing boom of the past ten years’.

A number of factors have contributed towards this curious anomaly in an otherwise upward Continental trend.

Low levels of home ownership (42% compared with 70% in Britain), a culture of state subsidy for rental accommodation and a reluctance by German banks to lend money to buy property have combined to cause house prices to stagnate.

So, yes, Germany could be a good place to invest: you will be buying close to the bottom of a market which is expected to go up.

‘The German property market has underperformed for a long time,’ confirms Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank. ‘But there’s been a lot of interest in Germany recently, led by major institutions and banks who can sniff a profit.

‘It’s one of the few markets where property investors can still pick up big chunks of stock very cheaply. The residential property market does offer value.’

Ilya Spitalnik, of German Property Investors, is more exuberant. ‘It’s a fantastic place to invest,’ he declares. ‘Eighteen months ago, the market had bottomed out. But it has now increased by at least 15% – in some areas, far more than that.’

If this rapid recovery suggests that new investors may have missed the boat, Mr Spitalnik thinks otherwise.
‘In practice, although German property prices are going up, it is still excellent value compared with other European countries,’ he says.

To find out what sort of value, take the capital Berlin, where the World Cup final will take place on Sunday.

Prices for a city centre apartment in one of Europe’s most dynamic cities – which has become a mecca for arty types priced out of London, Paris and Barcelona – are 50% to 60% cheaper than an equivalent flat in London.

A six-room apartment in the prosperous Friedenau district will put you back less than £200,000. For more ambitious investors, a fully refurbished city centre apartment block on Karl-Marx-Strasse with ten flats and three commercial units costs £600,000 – or roughly the cost of a four-bedroom terrace house in Chiswick, West London. So why is property so cheap?

‘You have to take the view that home ownership is structured much differently over there,’ says Spitalnik. ‘It’s very much skewed in favour of the tenant – to the extent that you rarely hear someone in Germany say: “I’ve found a great apartment to buy.” They’re much more likely to say: “I’ve found a great apartment to rent.”

‘There is little tradition of home ownership or of private individuals investing in residential property. ‘The historical curve of property values has followed a steady economic decline during the past ten years. The market is only now stabilising as the economy recovers.’

Prices in the former communist German Democratic Republic, in the east of the reunified country, are significantly lower than in the west – by as much as 15% to 20%. But this is unlikely to be the case for much longer. ‘The gap is closing,’ says Spitalnik. ‘But for the moment, cities such as Leipzig and Dresden are good places to buy.’

But don’t expect too much choice in the period property market anywhere in the country. Three quarters of homes in Germany have been built since 1945, so character properties come on to the market only infrequently.

They can still be found in winemaking rural areas, such as the Rhine and Mosel valleys, but prices are likely to be high. In the east, the properties for sale are more likely to be in state-built apartment blocks than attractive mansion blocks.

In the west, there are still altbau (old buildings) for sale in Berlin, Dusseldorf and Hanover. However Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt are less likely to be fertile hunting ground for buyers seeking character. But if you really want to be king of the Schloss (castle), you can still buy one. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the reunified country found it was the reluctant owner of hundreds of crumbling castles.

Many of them are for sale to any foreign investor willing and rich enough to take on a major refurbishment project. Grants of up to £175,000 are available for those prepared to wade into the uncertain waters of German bureaucracy.

The best advice is to get there before Kirstie and the rest of the TV gang. That way perhaps you could score a winner on Germany’s home turf.

What’s on the market

BERLIN
A fully refurbished, turn-of-the-century building on Karl-Marx-Strasse, one of the main shopping streets. Ten residential and three commercial units for £600,000, at a 6.25% gross yield. For more details, see germanproperty investors.com
Also in the capital, a turn-of-the-century, six-room, ground floor apartment with garden in the Friedenau district for £199,000. Fully renovated with wooden flooring throughout. See allgrund.com

DRESDEN
AN 18th-century castle in seven acres with a hunting lodge and several large barns in a small village 45 minutes from the city. It has been fully renovated outside, but requires extensive interior refurbishment. The purchase price and cost of refurbishment is estimated to be £2.06m. Visit poshjourneys.com

FRANKFURT
FOUR-BEDROOM, two-bathroom top floor apartment for £179,000. It is in the Bornheim area, close to East Park (the ‘Green Oasis’ of Frankfurt). Built in the early 1900s, it has been fully renovated with a new fitted kitchen and parquet flooring throughout.

Source: THISISMONEY.co.uk

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