Overseas Property Blog :: guide to international real estate investment

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Archive for the ‘Predictions’ Category

Goldman Sachs Now Confident & Bullish on the American Economy

goldman-sachs-logo Goldman Sachs is a name we all know, well those of us who follow international investment of any kind for any reason. At a time when banks were the salem witches for their part in the collapse of the American economy, Goldman Sachs was Melinda Warren. While the fires are only hot coals now it will likely be a long time before we forget the stories of executives taking hundreds of thousand dollars in golden parachute payments as their banks imploded.

The feelings of the public aside, on Wall Street Goldman Sachs never lost its status. Even as other banks were completely drowned by the crisis, Goldman Sach’s seemed to have the British stiff upper lip and with cut-to-the-bone analysis the firm was one of the fastest banks to start profiting from the new realities left in the wake of the crisis.

Profiling the Recovery Part III: Spain

Knowing — or maybe believing is a better word — that property markets and economies around the world are on the way back up sure is a nice feeling. It may be a short-lived feeling, because according to some there are signs that the short-lived positivity will end as quickly as it begun.

Profiling the Recovery Part II: United Kingdom

Knowing — or maybe believing is a better word — that property markets and economies around the world are on the way back up sure is a nice feeling. It may be a short-lived feeling, because according to some there are signs that the short-lived positivity will end as quickly as it begun.

Profiling the Recovery Part I: America

Knowing — or maybe believing is a better word — that property markets and economies around the world are on the way back up sure is a nice feeling. It may be a short-lived feeling, because according to some there are signs that the short-lived positivity will end as quickly as it begun.

I am not one of the people. Nor am I one of the plastic fantastic optimists that think the only way is up, and that rejoices in reports of UK mortgages doubling, and property in some areas selling for almost the same as it would have at the height of the boom.

The truth is, yes, we are making some headway against the deluge of negative financial news. In fact, a good analogy of the current recession recovery process for me, is a snow plough that has been completely submerged in snow: we have just jumped in and managed to get the engine started, the heat is slowly melting the snow, but we still have a hell of a lot of pushing to do before we clear the drifts.

As you would expect, all the countries of the world are recovering in different ways and at a different pace, depending on the makeup of their economy and the funding and direction of its government’s economic stimulation policies. Nobody knows how strong the recoveries are without the massive injection of cash and stimulation being poured into the world’s markets.

In this series of articles we will profile the G8 nations to track the progress of recovery in their housing markets so far, and attempt to map any possible deep-drifts in the road of stimulus withdrawal ahead.

5 Reasons to Think Twice about Economic ‘Recovery’

Around the world the recession is easing, or, at least according to economic indicators that is what is happening.

Much of Europe emerged from recession in the second quarter, including the big duo of France and Germany. Most of the rest followed in Q3 including Italy. US GDP grew 0.9% in the third quarter, and Italy’s an impressive 1%. Slovakia has also performed impressively; with growth of 1.6% in Q2 and 1.1% in Q3.

Moscow’s Property Bubble Set to Burst

moscow

Moscow investors and banks are playing a deadly game of Russian roulette in a stand-off to see who flinches first as the city’s once booming property market falls to ruins around them.

Billions of roubles are tied up in commercial and residential property portfolios.

Homes, offices and shops are standing empty as rents are unaffordable, new build projects are being cancelled, investors can’t refinance and the banks are sitting on a pile of yet to be realised toxic debt.

Montenegro Property Market: Slowdown Came at Perfect Time

kotor-montenegro-panorama

Things have slowed down a great deal in Montenegro since the global financial slowdown began. There has been a severe reduction in the number of buyers in the market, and the country’s economy is shrinking. But it “couldn’t have come at a better time” according to Montenegro architect Robin Gellately Smith of Kotor based Total Group.

Robin explained How Montenegro’s slow planning approvals process, which was a source of developer’s anger a few months ago is now viewed by many as their saviour because:

On-Going Property Price Corrections in the Far East

singapore-city-skylinejpg

Property prices in Hong Kong and Singapore are suffering the most as the ripples from the global financial crisis spread to the Far East.

Following on the heels of the US, UK and Europe, banks have shut off lending as governments strive to tackle falling output and rising unemployment.

Predictions are that the HK and Singapore property markets won’t show any signs of revival for at least a year or even longer.

IMF Reports Growing Inflation in Middle East A Concern

In the latest report released by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) the document states, while the global financial market meltdown has had little effects on the Middle East region, it is still responsible for complicated policymaking caused by the depreciation of the U.S dollar.

While regional growth received a strong 5.8 percent in 2007, increases in oil productions have been limited in the oil producing countries. The strong expansion of credit to the private sector as well as increased spending by Middle Eastern governments is made possible right now with high oil prices.

This has resulted in a strong growth of the local economy, especially in countries like Egypt who reported a 7 percent increase over the year of 2007.

Forbes Top 10 List of Emerging Markets

real estate

Forbes recently released a list of top emerging world real estate markets that is based on in depth studies. By looking at inflation rates, access to lending opportunities, economic expansion and strength of individual property rights they were able to filter out promising markets worldwide.

Despite the worldwide softening of certain markets, due to drying up of credit funds, Forbes has found some promising locations that are poised to explode within the next 5 years.

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