Overseas Property Blog :: guide to international real estate investment

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Archive for June, 2007

Singapore: Is the Property Surge Sustainable?

Agence France Presse reports that Singapore’s residential property prices rose by 10% in 2006 and that rents have risen by a truly extraordinary 100% in 2007 so far. That rentals are increasing steeply is confirmed by other sources (http://lushhome.wordpress.com/2007/04/) and there is evidence to suggest that the government is just as surprised at the change as everyone else appears to be. However, we’ve found no confirmation of AFP’s 100% increase statistic, yet. Data to hand suggests that rental yields have normally been in the region of 3.5% maximum for a number of years. Given that interest rates on savings in Singapore are less than 1% pa (www.singstat.gov.sg/Keystats/mqstats/ess/essa51.pdf ), property would still seem to be an attractive investment but, as borrowing rates are considerably higher (prime lending rate is 5.33%), any kind of gearing for property investments would be heavily dependent upon prices of assets rising to be economic. Mortgage rates are lower with fixed rate mortgages available at 3.75% and floating rate ones available at 3.4% (with even more favourable terms for one to three year terms. With the increase rental yields in the first half of 2007 the economics of property investment in Singapore are seeing a sea-change.

International Property News Beat – US REITs – a Bubble Rolling Over, Drop in foreign property purchases in Phuket and Top International Property Investment Hotspots

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Some Implications from The Mercer Global Cost of Living Survey – 2007

The latest Mercer ranking of cities by cost of living places Moscow, London and Seoul in first, second and third place. Mercer’s own analysis of the rankings gives prominence to changes in exchange rates, and particularly, the fall in the value of the dollar, as the chief ‘motor’ for moves up or down the list. However, in the case of London the change from 5th place in 2006 to second this year is also ascribed to higher property rental costs. Of course, transport costs for London residents are another factor helping the city up the scale. Glasgow (up from 60th to 36th) and Birmingham (up from 69th to 41st ) are among those cities to have moved furthest.

For a true appreciation of what changes in rankings mean for people on the ground it’s important to be aware of developments in Mercer’s benchmark city, New York. The benchmark itself does not remain static; New York housing costs are reported to have risen by an average of 6.5% in the course of 2006. In the US, the consumer prices index rose 3.23% in 2006 and the rise in the 12 months to March (when the Mercer survey was conducted) was 2.77%. These increase in New York costs of living need to be borne in mind when considering Mercer’s cost of living indices for other cities (which are all relative to New York). So far the serious softness in much of the US housing market does not appear to be showing up in Mercer’s figures.

Although a cost of living survey is necessarily a somewhat blunt instrument for accessing real estate in the different cities covered, the Mercer report does throw up some interesting contrasts, nevertheless. Focusing on places covered by Overseas Property Mall in the last few months, it’s interesting that Bratislava is not only more expensive than Prague again, but costs of living there have risen considerably more sharply in the last year. Berlin continues to be slightly cheaper than Munich or Frankfurt though all three have risen up the table as a result of the increased rate of exchange for the Euro. Sofia is Europe’s least expensive city (ranked 108th). Athens, Barcelona and Madrid, also affected by the Euro’s rise, have all risen a long way up the table in the last year.

Outside Europe, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have both slipped down the table a little. Does this reflect a measure of stability in property prices and rents in the UAE? Interestingly, Dakar in Senegal is higher up at 33rd with a substantial increase in its cost of living index. However, this is probably mainly a reflection of the fixed exchange rate the CFA franc enjoys with the Euro.

Finally, it is worth remembering that Mercer’s methodology is based on the similarities in spending patterns among people in middle and higher income brackets no matter where they originate from. The rankings are of limited value to those relocating themselves, say as a matter of lifestyle choice, who are happy to do as the Romans do when in Rome.

Mercer Human Resource Consulting

Cost of Living Survey – Worldwide Ranking 2007

(including housing)

Top 50

Base City: New York, USA (=100)

Rankings

Cost of Living index

March 2007

March 2006

City

Country

March 2007

March 2006

1

1

MOSCOW

Russia

134.4

123.9

2

5

LONDON

United Kingdom

126.3

110.6

3

2

SEOUL

South Korea

122.4

121.7

4

3

TOKYO

Japan

122.1

119.1

5

4

HONG KONG

Hong Kong

119.4

116.3

6

8

COPENHAGEN

Denmark

110.2

101.1

7

7

GENEVA

Switzerland

109.8

103

8

6

OSAKA

Japan

108.4

108.3

9

9

ZURICH

Switzerland

107.6

100.8

10

10

OSLO

Norway

105.8

100

11

13

MILAN

Italy

104.4

96.9

12

12

ST. PETERSBURG

Russia

103

99.7

13

15

PARIS

France

101.4

93.1

14

17

SINGAPORE

Singapore

100.4

92

15

10

NEW YORK CITY, NY

United States

100

100

16

18

DUBLIN

Ireland

99.6

91.8

17

24

TEL AVIV

Israel

97.7

89.7

18

21

ROME

Italy

97.6

89.8

19

21

VIENNA

Austria

96.9

89.8

20

14

BEIJING

China

95.9

94.9

21

19

SYDNEY

Australia

94.9

91.3

22

25

HELSINKI

Finland

93.3

87.8

23

36

STOCKHOLM

Sweden

93.1

84.8

24

27

DOUALA

Cameroon

92.9

87.6

25

41

AMSTERDAM

Netherlands

92.2

83.4

26

53

MADRID

Spain

92.1

81.6

26

20

SHANGHAI

China

92.1

91.2

28

21

KIEV

Ukraine

91.4

89.8

29

59

ATHENS

Greece

90.6

81.1

30

52

ALMATY

Kazakhstan

89.6

81.9

31

56

BARCELONA

Spain

89.2

81.2

31

48

BRATISLAVA

Slovak Republic

89.2

82.4

33

45

DAKAR

Senegal

89

82.8

34

25

DUBAI

United Arab Emirates

88.8

87.8

35

45

ABIDJAN

Cote d’Ivoire

88.3

82.8

36

60

GLASGOW

United Kingdom

88.1

80.7

37

31

LAGOS

Nigeria

88

85.5

38

15

ISTANBUL

Turkey

87.7

93.1

39

61

MUNICH

Germany

87.6

80.2

40

61

FRANKFURT

Germany

87.4

80.5

41

69

BIRMINGHAM

United Kingdom

87.2

79.7

42

29

LOS ANGELES, CA

United States

87.1

86.7

43

56

LUXEMBOURG

Luxembourg

87

81.2

44

70

BRUSSELS

Belgium

86.5

79.5

45

30

ABU DHABI

United Arab Emirates

85.9

86

45

72

BERLIN

Germany

85.9

79.2

45

62

DUSSELDORF

Germany

85.9

80.4

48

28

TAIPEI

Taiwan

85.8

86.8

49

50

PRAGUE

Czech Republic

85.6

82.1

50

51

ALGIERS

Algeria

85.1

82

International Property News Beat – BOA Forsee Rebound in U.S. Housing Market, Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Raise $12b for Property Funds and Rising Foreign Interest in Malaysian Property

UAE: What Are The Investment Prospects for The Smaller Emirates?

Administrative Map of the United Arab Emirates

Lacking the huge natural resources of Abu Dhabi or the world class infrastructure of Dubai, the smaller members of the United Arab Emirates do have developmental advantages of their own in terms of geographic location and tourist potential.

Ras al Khaimah (population 205,000), the northernmost of the emirates, close by the Omani enclave, reported investment of Dh 100bn in 2006 (approximately $25bn) with the tourism and real estate sectors being particularly active. However, the emirate’s economic plans place industrial development in the key position.

Fujairah (pop. 127,000) has the advantage of being the only UAE port outside the Persian Gulf. Strategic facilities are being constructed to take advantage of this, anticipating any military or naval action that could close the Straits of Hormuz at the mouth of the gulf. These include an oil pipeline from Abu Dhabi and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage hub.The latter is a project being undertaken by Dubai Multi Commodities Centre in conjunction with LNG Impel, part of Galveston LNG of Canada. The go-ahead for this important project, representing a capital outlay of Dh 8bn, is contingent on arrangements for Qatar to use the facility. The Fujairah authorities have plans to reclaim two square km from the Arabian Sea for the project.

International Property News Beat – Sofia, Europe’s Least Expensive Expat City, The Palm Dubai’s First Resident Moves in and New Star Property Fund Strengthens its Team

Palm Dubai's First Resident Andrew Duke Luxury Mansion

Morgan Stanley’s MSREF VI fund Shows its Commitment to the Global Property Market

Morgan Stanley’s MSREF VI fund has collected $8bn. This total will be leveraged up to in excess of $30bn to make property investments around the world but with a heavy emphasis on the Japanese market (50%) and emerging markets (25%). However, Reuters report that 30% of the fund is earmarked for Europe and 60% for Asia, which would appear not to allow as much for the Chinese and Indian markets as other reports are hinting. The MSREF series of funds currently have real estate assets worth $83.5bn and $31.6bn under management. The new fund is intended to have a return of 20% a year, in line with Morgan Stanley’s overall success with these types of fund since 1991. To date 45% of the MSREF VI funds are reported to be committed, including the $2.4bn purchase of 12 hotels and two property management units from All Nippon Airways. It is not apparent to what extent MSREF VI will be buying up portfolios of non-performing loans in its target market, one of its customary investment strategies.

International Property News Beat – London House Prices Slowest Rise in 5 Months, Mumbai Mafia ridding high on Indian Real Estate and Modest Upswing in Australian Property Market

Tiger Woods Roof Top Burj Dubai

The Tourist Residential Market in Montenegro

Colliers International office in Belgrade has reported sharp increases in the cost of properties in the Montenegrin coastal districts. In the list of resorts with prices in the 2500 to 5000 Euro range are Bar, Hercog Novi, Tivat and Ulcinj, while the report implies that prices in Budva, Petrovac and Sveti Stefan are higher still.

A key consideration has to be the stability of this part of South Eastern Europe. Montenegro shares frontiers with Albania, Kosovo and Bosnia Hercegovina and this latest phase of the country’s independent existence dates back only 12 months. To put this in some sort of context; how many of the investors in properties in Tallinn or Riga would have been prepared to commit themselves as far back as 1992? Montenegro’s economy suffered from being tied to Serbia’s in the 1990s – an important factor in the move to independence – and the country has a low GDP (at $2.27bn considerably less than the last year’s profits for Tesco) and high levels of poverty. For foreign investors the factors in its favour are natural beauty, closeness to Western Europe and the use of the Euro.

Where do Shanghai’s Property Taxes Fit into China’s Economic Jigsaw Puzzle?

While the continued upward path of the Shanghai stock market has featured regularly in the world’s media, the city’s real estate market has not received so much attention. Nevertheless, property in China’s largest city is undoubtedly part of the boom and the web of economic dilemmas facing the Chinese authorities.

The latest efforts to curb real estate speculation have resulted in the introduction of a 20% tax on second-hand property sales. One explanation given for the increase is the authorities’ desire to prevent a speculative bubble in real estate fuelled by profits from the stock market. Another, more plausible reason is that the lure of the stock market is so great that people are selling property in order to finance speculative investments. This tax hike should certainly be seen in the context of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s general efforts to decelerate the juggernaut of the Chinese economy.

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