Overseas Property Blog :: guide to international real estate investment

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Archive for July, 2006

INDIA: Property prices may fall by 20%

The voice in favour of property prices coming down across the country is growing. Prices could fall as much as 20% feel experts. While industry players say with the interest rates still working favorably for the end user and speculative interest in real estate slowing down, actual users may soon start calling the shots in the property market.

Is a correction in the property market around the corner? Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC for one expects property prices to fall by upto 20% in the next 6 months.

He told CNBC TV 18, “Prices have peaked and now prices logically have to come down and interest rates will go up marginally.” The rising interest rates on home loans have been another cause for worry. While industry players confirm demand for loans from high net worth individuals has seen a decline, they feel taking a home loan will still benefit an end user. On the other hand it will put a much-needed spanner in loan backed speculative buying of property

Rajiv Sabharwal, Head – Retail Assets Group, ICICI says, “If you look at people who are buying homes and getting tax benefits, even with an interest rate of 9% to 9.5% their post tax benefit cost would be 6% to 6.5%. Compare that with the rental he will have to pay and here you have not factored in the capital appreciation, which may come to him even at the rate of 10% to 15% per annum. It still goes in the favor of customers buying an own home rather than renting.”

While the demand for property still remains buoyant the volume of property transactions have taken a beating in the past two months due to prices spiraling beyond reach. Now consultants believe that builders will be driven to read just the steep prices they were quoting a year to six months back.

Source: MoneyControl India

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Morgan Stanley invests in Indian real estate developer

Morgan Stanley announces investment of $65 million in Alpha G: Corp Development, an India focused real estate developer.

Morgan Stanley announced Monday (July 17) its second foray into India’s real estate sector via an investment of $65 million in Alpha G: Corp Development Private Limited (Alpha).

Alpha was founded in 2003 by a management team, which includes Colonel R.S. Sodhi and Mr. S.K. Sayal and is backed by Mr. Ghanshyam Sheth and the Mulji and Choudhurie families. It develops projects in northern and western India and has been involved in developments in India’s business process outsourcing (BPO) hub of Gurgaon as well as in Amritsar, Jaipur and Ahmedabad.

The team at Alpha has been together for a decade and was earlier a part of GESCO (the demerged real estate division of Great Eastern Shipping). In a short period it has acquired 450 acres of land.

“Alpha represents an opportunity to partner with a best in class and deeply experienced management team with a unique and highly scalable business model in a region of the country where we continue to expect tremendous growth. We continue to believe India represents a compelling real estate investment opportunity and this investment is a continuation of our India strategy,” says Zain Fancy, executive director and head of Morgan Stanley Real Estate in Asia-Pacific.

In March 2006, Morgan Stanley paid $68 million for an undisclosed minority stake in Mantri Developers, a privately-owned south-India based developer of retail, residential and commercial projects. Like in the case of Alpha, Morgan Stanley cited the quality of the management team as a key driver of its investment decision.

Geographically, Morgan Stanley is covering a number of India’s fastest growing cities through its investments with Mantri based in India’s information technology hub, Bangalore. Through the Alpha investment Morgan Stanley has now got a toehold in north and west India as well.

Real estate is the new flavour of the month in India. The country’s burgeoning middle class now has access to competitive home loans and this has fuelled the demand for residential properties in the country’s main employment centers.

Quality offices are perennially in short supply and the government has been liberalising foreign investment norms in the sector, allowing those who have been watching on the borderline to play a more active role.

Other international investors looking at this market includes Singapore’s CapitaLand, which recently took a stake in Pantaloon-promoted retail-led fund Horizon.

Source: FinanceAsia.com
Related Articles: Official Website of Alpha G:Corp

Residents in Goa India: Number of Foreigners Owning Property in State Alarming

While the movement against foreigners buying properties in Goa is gaining momentum in the tourist state, Goa government told the state legislative assembly on Monday that foreigners in Goa’s different talukas have purchased around 482 properties.

Summed up together, the entire properties works out to 12 lac square metres, in this tiny state.

The locals are up in arms against foreigners buying properties in the state, mostly illegally. Marking a protest, locals of Morjim village in North Goa, tilled the land purchased by foreigners. The activists asked the tenants to till the land and sow the seeds.

The coastal tourist state has always been a haven for tourists, who have now begun settling here. The data furnished in the state legislative assembly reveals that coastal Bardez and Salcette taluka, besides Panaji city, are the “most sought after” places to purchase properties for these foreigners.

Goa’s chief minister Pratapsingh Rane, who is also holding revenue portfolio, in a written reply to the state legislative assembly on Monday, stated that except Bicholim, Sattari, Ponda and Quepem taluka, foreigners have purchased properties.

Quoting data available with the state registration department, the chief minister has mentioned that maximum cases are in coastal Bardez taluka (351) and Salcette (37). “Panaji area has 75 properties being purchased by foreign nationals.”

Rane has said as far as permission from home ministry, finance ministry, foreign affairs ministry or Reserve Bank of India or any other appropriate authority is concerned, it is not applicable to the registration department.

“Necessary action as per law would be initiated on the detected violations and process is under way to detect them,” the chief minister has said.

As per information tabled on the floor of the house, Swiss, Dutch, British, German, Irish, Australian, German, Portuguese, Singaporean, Russian, Italian and Spanish nationals have purchased properties in the state.

Source: daijiworld.com
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City to face oversupply in real estate

Shanghai Skyscape Originally uploaded by pmorgan.

SHANGHAI residences will be in oversupply in the next few years as residents will only need up to 24 million square meters a year, while 33 million square meters of new residences may enter the market annually, China News Service quoted a survey as saying today.

In some neighborhoods, the amount of unsold residences accounts for 40 percent now.

Property sales tumbled last month by 35.6 percent to 16,245 units from a month earlier. This was the lowest in the first half of this year except in February, as many potential buyers and developers took a wait-and-see type of attitude because of the uncertainty of when and how the local government will implement new state regulations.

The transacted volume in Pudong New Area reached 2,298 units last month, nearly 1,000 less than a month earlier, although the volume was the highest among all districts in the period.

Sales in Minhang District dropped the sharpest in the period, and its sales last week fell by 48 percent from a week earlier. But sales in suburban areas, like Nanhui District, grew because of the lower prices.

Last week, residences price dropped 5.9 percent from a week earlier to 8,370 yuan (US$1,046) per square meter.

Last month, 38.9-percent less residences were promoted in the market, totaling 989,000 square meters, after the central government began implementing regulations to cool the real estate market.

“Developers are uncertain about the future market, so they are planning to sit back and wait for the changes. The real estate market will enter its off-season in the next few months,” said an anonymous developer.

Source: ShanghaiDaily

Should you buy in Germany?

One thing that England supporters attending the World Cup will have learned (apart from the confirmation that our penalty takers can’t hit a cow’s bottom with a banjo) is that Germany is an attractive country with a welcoming and hospitable people.

Surprisingly, though, despite its proximity and value for money, it barely features on the wish list of British buyers of holiday homes.

There are a number of reasons for this, but one of the most obvious is that Germany is not a major tourist draw for British holidaymakers or second home owners.

Most of us buy property abroad to let it out to other British holidaymakers or to live in communities of fellow expatriates.

Neither really applies to Germany, but the focus on the country during the World Cup could be about to change all that.

Savvy property investors are talking about Germany being the next big thing on the Continent. But on what grounds?

According to the European Housing Review 2006, it is the only European country where residential property prices dropped last year.

In its recent report, property analyst Merrill Lynch observed that the country ‘has conspicuously failed to join in the global housing boom of the past ten years’.

A number of factors have contributed towards this curious anomaly in an otherwise upward Continental trend.

Low levels of home ownership (42% compared with 70% in Britain), a culture of state subsidy for rental accommodation and a reluctance by German banks to lend money to buy property have combined to cause house prices to stagnate.

So, yes, Germany could be a good place to invest: you will be buying close to the bottom of a market which is expected to go up.

‘The German property market has underperformed for a long time,’ confirms Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank. ‘But there’s been a lot of interest in Germany recently, led by major institutions and banks who can sniff a profit.

‘It’s one of the few markets where property investors can still pick up big chunks of stock very cheaply. The residential property market does offer value.’

Ilya Spitalnik, of German Property Investors, is more exuberant. ‘It’s a fantastic place to invest,’ he declares. ‘Eighteen months ago, the market had bottomed out. But it has now increased by at least 15% – in some areas, far more than that.’

If this rapid recovery suggests that new investors may have missed the boat, Mr Spitalnik thinks otherwise.
‘In practice, although German property prices are going up, it is still excellent value compared with other European countries,’ he says.

To find out what sort of value, take the capital Berlin, where the World Cup final will take place on Sunday.

Prices for a city centre apartment in one of Europe’s most dynamic cities – which has become a mecca for arty types priced out of London, Paris and Barcelona – are 50% to 60% cheaper than an equivalent flat in London.

A six-room apartment in the prosperous Friedenau district will put you back less than £200,000. For more ambitious investors, a fully refurbished city centre apartment block on Karl-Marx-Strasse with ten flats and three commercial units costs £600,000 – or roughly the cost of a four-bedroom terrace house in Chiswick, West London. So why is property so cheap?

‘You have to take the view that home ownership is structured much differently over there,’ says Spitalnik. ‘It’s very much skewed in favour of the tenant – to the extent that you rarely hear someone in Germany say: “I’ve found a great apartment to buy.” They’re much more likely to say: “I’ve found a great apartment to rent.”

‘There is little tradition of home ownership or of private individuals investing in residential property. ‘The historical curve of property values has followed a steady economic decline during the past ten years. The market is only now stabilising as the economy recovers.’

Prices in the former communist German Democratic Republic, in the east of the reunified country, are significantly lower than in the west – by as much as 15% to 20%. But this is unlikely to be the case for much longer. ‘The gap is closing,’ says Spitalnik. ‘But for the moment, cities such as Leipzig and Dresden are good places to buy.’

But don’t expect too much choice in the period property market anywhere in the country. Three quarters of homes in Germany have been built since 1945, so character properties come on to the market only infrequently.

They can still be found in winemaking rural areas, such as the Rhine and Mosel valleys, but prices are likely to be high. In the east, the properties for sale are more likely to be in state-built apartment blocks than attractive mansion blocks.

In the west, there are still altbau (old buildings) for sale in Berlin, Dusseldorf and Hanover. However Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt are less likely to be fertile hunting ground for buyers seeking character. But if you really want to be king of the Schloss (castle), you can still buy one. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the reunified country found it was the reluctant owner of hundreds of crumbling castles.

Many of them are for sale to any foreign investor willing and rich enough to take on a major refurbishment project. Grants of up to £175,000 are available for those prepared to wade into the uncertain waters of German bureaucracy.

The best advice is to get there before Kirstie and the rest of the TV gang. That way perhaps you could score a winner on Germany’s home turf.

What’s on the market

BERLIN
A fully refurbished, turn-of-the-century building on Karl-Marx-Strasse, one of the main shopping streets. Ten residential and three commercial units for £600,000, at a 6.25% gross yield. For more details, see germanproperty investors.com
Also in the capital, a turn-of-the-century, six-room, ground floor apartment with garden in the Friedenau district for £199,000. Fully renovated with wooden flooring throughout. See allgrund.com

DRESDEN
AN 18th-century castle in seven acres with a hunting lodge and several large barns in a small village 45 minutes from the city. It has been fully renovated outside, but requires extensive interior refurbishment. The purchase price and cost of refurbishment is estimated to be £2.06m. Visit poshjourneys.com

FRANKFURT
FOUR-BEDROOM, two-bathroom top floor apartment for £179,000. It is in the Bornheim area, close to East Park (the ‘Green Oasis’ of Frankfurt). Built in the early 1900s, it has been fully renovated with a new fitted kitchen and parquet flooring throughout.

Source: THISISMONEY.co.uk

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Property in Estonia: Bright new star of the Baltic

This country has the world’s fastest-rising house prices, so move quickly to buy a slice of the action.

Stephen Barrett, a property investor, was surprised on his last property-hunting trip to Estonia. “I went to buy a town-centre apartment and came back with a 45-acre forest with bears and elk,” he says.

Barrett’s forest in Parnu, a beachside town of colourful wooden houses, is an hour and a half’s drive south-west of the capital, Tallinn, and cost £59,000. He has also invested in a £45,000 villa at Parnu’s Tahkuranna Beach and a £65,000 apartment in Tallinn, both through Churchill Oü.

“Once I get planning permission, I could sell the land for £100,000 profit. Or I could divide the land into 80 plots and sell them for £20,000 each, or develop it myself as a rural resort, which would be popular with holidaying Scandinavians,” he explains.

Estonia is enjoying an economic boom, with 9.2 per cent growth last year and 30 per 1cent property price rises over the past year. It has the fastest-rising property prices in the world, according to the estate agent Knight Frank’s global house-price index.

Tallinn, a burgeoning IT hub, is the focus of much of the investment. Once the new commercial and residential Twin Towers building goes up in the business district, apartment prices are expected to hit £5,000 per sq m.

Many people believe that Parnu will be the next Tallinn. “Tallinn’s market is very tight but Parnu is the place to be,” says Chris Tonkinson of Crichton Developments, which is selling apartments on a golf resort near a white-sand beach in Valgeranna, and in Audru, from £50,000.

Investors can buy shares in Crichton. “It’s for people who want to make money from new developments in Estonia without the worry of owning a property,” says Tonkinson. For each multiple of £7,500 up to £30,000, you get a 1.25 per cent share in the firm.

“I’m guaranteeing that investors will get their money back after one year and retain their percentage share in the development company,” Tonkinson explains. “Then you are looking at returns in excess of 250 per cent within three years. You can only sell your share once it’s built.”

Plots of land are also being snapped up in Parnu. “You have to be here to get in quickly,” says Stephen Barrett. Lee Williams, the MD of Churchill Oü in Parnu, reports that nearly all of his clients are British and most are after plots of land. He recently sold two hectares beside the river to a British buyer for £45,000 – its value should rise by 36 per cent a year.

“The land registry here has a sophisticated system that allows you to see aerial photos of the plot, so you know what you are buying,” says Williams. “The house-buying process is quick and transparent, and it’s so cheap to borrow money, with mortgage rates from 3.1 per cent, that most of our clients borrow up to 75 per cent. With prices starting low and rising fast, there is little to lose.”

Although Tallinn has seen impressive property price rises since it joined the EU in 2004, David Laity of Property in Estonia predicts another big lift before Estonia adopts the Euro, provisionally in 2008.

“Money is flooding into Tallinn, but given the old town is a world heritage site, property is still reasonable, with starting prices of around £50,000 for a small studio in the centre,” he says.

The snag, he adds, is that demand is so high that new apartments sell out as soon as they hit the market, mainly to Estonian buyers.

If you intend to rent out your apartment, being within a short walk of the old town is vital. Ilmarine is a new development in a prime position on the disused harbourside, which is being transformed into a cultural zone. The current phase, with studios from £31,000 for 31 sq m studios, has sold out, but the area is due to see more development. At Luha Street, a 10-minute walk to the old town, 34 sq m one-bedroom apartments start at £48,500.

“Estonia is seeing a boom without a big element of speculation,” says Laity. “In five years, it will be one of the richest countries in Europe.”

Source: The Independent

Dubai: Registration of freehold property gets under way

Dubai: Dubai Land Department has started registration of freehold properties for non-GCC residents, a source told Gulf News.

A decree identifying Dubai’s freehold zones has been officially approved and could be accepted as law by the end of the month. But according to the source, the process of issuing title deeds in individual names is in fact under way with many residents bearing official documents declaring the land in their name.

More than 13,000 families have already moved to their “freehold” homes since Dubai opened its property to expatriate ownership in 2002.

In March, Dubai issued Property Registration Law (No 7) that legalised freehold ownership of land and property to UAE and GCC nationals. According to Article (4) of the law, non-GCC citizens are able to purchase freehold property in areas determined and specified by the Ruler of Dubai.

Mohammad Sultan Thani, director of development and marketing administration at Dubai Land Department, said a decree identifying Dubai’s freehold zones has been officially agreed by the Ruler’s Office and is awaiting official publication.

He said developments built by major real estate companies such as Nakheel, Dubai Holding and Emaar will be included, and added, “We are not expecting any major omissions”.

Although he could not confirm the exact date of publication, Thani said the decree was weeks, rather than months, away.

According to a leading Dubai developer, a discrepancy among buyers over the legal rights they expect and what is in fact the current reality is damaging the real estate sector.

“Every week and month that the law remains unclear it shakes the credibility of the market, said Mohammad Nimer, director of MAG Group.

Nadeem A Shaikh, manager of Better Homes’ legal division, added: “Hopefully [the decree will be passed] very soon. The announcement would alleviate uncertainty for all those buyers who bought property in popular areas such as Emirates Hills and Dubai Marina on the reliance that these “zones” would eventually become freehold.

“Buyers currently believe they can register their property immediately and that the transfer fee they have already paid will cover this cost.”

The Land Department is planning to set up a temporary office near Dubai’s main residential developments to cope with the rush to register when the decree is passed, while a new premises is being built in Bur Dubai. The process is subject to charges from the Land Department.

Source: Gulf News

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Emaar eyes China market with Shanghai office

Dubai: Emaar Properties has opened a full-fledged office in Shanghai, marking its entry into China with a plan to roll out a number of real estate projects including residential, commercial, hotels and hospitals, a company statement said.

The move comes following the Dubai-based real estate developer’s major foray in key growth markets including Saudi Arabia, India, Morocco, Egypt, Syria, Turkey and Pakistan with projects value combinedly exceeding Dh230 billion, including Dh100 billion in Saudi Arabia, Dh78 billion in Pakistan, Dh25 billion in Morocco, Dh10 billion in Turkey and a further Dh20 billion in India.

Earlier, it acquired US-based John Laing Homes for Dh3.856 billion ($1.050 billion), a strategic move that has firmly perched Emaar in the international spotlight.

Emaar is the third UAE entity to have made major foray into China, the world’s second largest economy following DP World and Damac Propertieswho have already pledged sizeable investment in the People’s Republic.

“Emaar’s multi-pronged approach to tap into the Chinese economy, which gained a 9.9 per cent growth in 2005, will flag off with the development of modern, community-centric lifestyle developments in Beijing and Shanghai. These residential projects will feature the entire spectrum of amenities including fitness centres, retail malls, schools as well as hotels,” the company said in a statement.

Mohammad Ali Al Abbar, Emaar chairman, said the premises in the Jiushi office building in Shanghai will open this month. The office will steer Emaar’s ambitious investment plans for the world’s second largest economy.

“Emaar’s entry into China completes a strategic leg of our international expansion programme that focused on three booming markets the Middle East, the India Subcontinent and now China,” Al Abbar said.

“Following its entry into the WTO in 2001 and market reforms gaining pace, the Chinese economy has been growing at an impressive rate. Its contribution to the global GDP growth is more than that of America as well as that of the three next-largest emerging economies India, Brazil and Russia. Underpinning this growth momentum is the property sector.”

Beijing and Shanghai are two focal points for Emaar’s entry into this mega market. In particular, Beijing will be the venue for the 2008 Olympics and Shanghai will host the 2010 World Expo.

Source:
Gulfnews
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China eyes limits on land sales

BEIJING China plans to restrict purchases of real estate by foreign investors in order to reduce speculation and prevent a property bubble, a government official said Thursday.

New rules defining what type of overseas investors can buy property could be announced this month, Lin Zheying, deputy director general of the Commerce Ministry’s Foreign Investment Administration, told reporters in Beijing.

The regulations may threaten plans by investors like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley to increase holdings of Chinese real estate after prices rose 7.1 percent in Beijing through May. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has curbed lending to cool an economy that grew 10.3 percent in the first quarter and to prevent a drop in land prices from causing loan defaults.

“The government is worried that overseas investment is bringing too much foreign currency into China and that it will cause property bubbles,” said Liu Yang, a fund manager at Atlantis Investment Management in Hong Kong. “But people are buying because they see real growth prospects and real returns from Chinese real estate.”

Policies to cool foreign property investment come amid a raft of other measures Wen is implementing to cool a credit-fueled investment boom driven by swelling inflows of foreign capital.

The International Finance News, a publication owned by the ruling Communist Party’s official newspaper, the People’s Daily, earlier this month said that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange could use “technical” restrictions, like tightening transaction settlement procedures and strengthening supervision of real estate companies receiving foreign funds or listing overseas.

With foreign investors poised to pour billions of dollars into Chinese real estate, restricting investment from overseas could help slow growth in foreign- exchange reserves and ease pressure on property prices.

“Funds from all over the world are trying to get into the Asia-Pacific, and on top of their list is China,” Guy Hollis, head of U.S. real estate consultant Jones Lang LaSalle’s investment arm. “About $30 billion in overseas funds wants to find a home in China.”

Speculation that China will let its currency gain at a faster pace increases the lure of property. China revalued the yuan almost a year ago and abandoned a peg to the dollar.

“One way that you can bet on an appreciation in the currency is to own assets in China, and real estate has been the favorite one with capital gains being pretty good,” said John Kyriakopoulos, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Overseas institutions bought property worth of $3.4 billion in China last year, the SAFE said in April. That did not include “lots” of transactions that can’t be tracked and confirmed, said Remy Chan, Shanghai-based head of markets at Jones Lang LaSalle.

Foreign investors are entering China’s property market by investing in Chinese developers or forming a locally registered entity such as a private equity fund to acquire existing properties. In some cases, foreign lenders are involved in financing such operations, said Jun Ma, head of China research at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong.

In the past five months, international investment banks and real estate funds have announced plans to invest more than $5 billion in Chinese property.

Source: IHT
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